Statistical analysis of recent fault-plane solutions of earthquakes

The large number of fault-plane solutions at present available in the literature permit one to calculate several statistical averages that have an important bearing upon geotectonics. The present paper represents a continuation of earlier work in this direction: 101 new fault-plane solutions are listed and the ratio of pressure to tension, strike slip to dip slip, and the average slip angle have been calculated for nine earthquake areas. Some of the older results are thereby corroborated, viz., that the “normal” character of earthquakes is to represent strike-slip faulting, and that the central Asian regions constitute an exception to this rule. In addition, it is now possible to make a breakdown with regard to depth. In this, a peculiar situation is found at 0.03 R depth, where the slip angle reaches a maximum. If the relationship between shallow and deep earthquakes be considered for any one area, however, it turns out that they are on the whole of the same character. Thus, whatever it is that causes earthquakes, acts in a similar fashion at all depths in any one area, but differs from one area to another

Seismic evidence for the tectonics of Central and Western Asia

A statistical analysis of the null axes of the fault-plane solutions of earthquakes in any one area permits determination of the average tectonic motion direction of that area. In the present paper this method has been applied to areas in central and western Asia for which several hundred fault-plane solutions are readily available in the literature. The investigation yields the result that (seismically) calculated tectonic motion directions in a series of small areas that are part of a larger unit are consistent with each other and that there is in every case an excellent correlation with the tectonic motion of the area as postulated from geological studies. This appears to justify completely the seismic method. The seismically determined tectonic motion in central Asia appears to be mainly in a north-south direction. The motion refers to the present time (since the earthquakes occur at the present time), but it is the same as that postulated in geology for an explanation of the folding of the central Asian mountain ranges. This demonstrates that the stress system which created the central Asian mountains is active at the present time

Bayesian uncertainty assessment of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins for conceptual rainfall-runoff models

Urbanization and the resulting land-use change strongly affect the water cycle and runoff-processes in watersheds. Unfortunately, small urban watersheds, which are most affected by urban sprawl, are mostly ungauged. This makes it intrinsically difficult to assess the consequences of urbanization. Most of all, it is unclear how to reliably assess the predictive uncertainty given the structural deficits of the applied models. In this study, we therefore investigate the uncertainty of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins from structurally uncertain rainfall-runoff models. To this end, we suggest a procedure to explicitly account for input uncertainty and model structure deficits using Bayesian statistics with a continuous-time autoregressive error model. In addition, we propose a concise procedure to derive prior parameter distributions from base data and successfully apply the methodology to an urban catchment in Warsaw, Poland. Based on our results, we are able to demonstrate that the autoregressive error model greatly helps to meet the statistical assumptions and to compute reliable prediction intervals. In our study, we found that predicted peak flows were up to 7 times higher than observations. This was reduced to 5 times with Bayesian updating, using only few discharge measurements. In addition, our analysis suggests that imprecise rainfall information and model structure deficits contribute mostly to the total prediction uncertainty. In the future, flood predictions in ungauged basins will become more important due to ongoing urbanization as well as anthropogenic and climatic changes. Thus, providing reliable measures of uncertainty is crucial to support decision making

Noether-Lefschetz theory and the Yau-Zaslow conjecture

The Yau-Zaslow conjecture determines the reduced genus 0 Gromov-Witten invariants of K3 surfaces in terms of the Dedekind eta function. Classical intersections of curves in the moduli of K3 surfaces with Noether-Lefschetz divisors are related to 3-fold Gromov-Witten theory via the K3 invariants. Results by Borcherds and Kudla-Millson determine the classical intersections in terms of vector-valued modular forms. Proven mirror transformations can often be used to calculate the 3-fold invariants which arise. Via a detailed study of the STU model (determining special curves in the moduli of K3 surfaces), we prove the Yau-Zaslow conjecture for all curve classes on K3 surfaces. Two modular form identities are required. The first, the Klemm-Lerche-Mayr identity relating hypergeometric series to modular forms after mirror transformation, is proven here. The second, the Harvey-Moore identity, is proven by D. Zagier and presented in the paper.Comment: 40 page

Breakdown of Kolmogorov scaling in models of cluster aggregation with deposition

The steady state of the model of cluster aggregation with deposition is characterized by a constant flux of mass directed from small masses towards large masses. It can therefore be studied using phenomenological theories of turbulence, such as Kolmogorov's 1941 theory. On the other hand, the large scale behavior of the aggregation model in dimensions lower than or equal to two is governed by a perturbative fixed point of the renormalization group flow, which enables an analytic study of the scaling properties of correlation functions in the steady state. In this paper, we show that the correlation functions have multifractal scaling, which violates linear Kolmogorov scaling. The analytical results are verified by Monte Carlo simulations.Comment: 5 pages 4 figure

Interface Equations for Capillary Rise in Random Environment

We consider the influence of quenched noise upon interface dynamics in 2D and 3D capillary rise with rough walls by using phase-field approach, where the local conservation of mass in the bulk is explicitly included. In the 2D case the disorder is assumed to be in the effective mobility coefficient, while in the 3D case we explicitly consider the influence of locally fluctuating geometry along a solid wall using a generalized curvilinear coordinate transformation. To obtain the equations of motion for meniscus and contact lines, we develop a systematic projection formalism which allows inclusion of disorder. Using this formalism, we derive linearized equations of motion for the meniscus and contact line variables, which become local in the Fourier space representation. These dispersion relations contain effective noise that is linearly proportional to the velocity. The deterministic parts of our dispersion relations agree with results obtained from other similar studies in the proper limits. However, the forms of the noise terms derived here are quantitatively different from the other studies

On D0-branes in Gepner models

We show why and when D0-branes at the Gepner point of Calabi-Yau manifolds given as Fermat hypersurfaces exist.Comment: 22 pages, substantial improvements in sections 2 and 3, references added, version to be publishe

A transition from river networks to scale-free networks

A spatial network is constructed on a two dimensional space where the nodes are geometrical points located at randomly distributed positions which are labeled sequentially in increasing order of one of their co-ordinates. Starting with $N$ such points the network is grown by including them one by one according to the serial number into the growing network. The $t$-th point is attached to the $i$-th node of the network using the probability: $\pi_i(t) \sim k_i(t)\ell_{ti}^{\alpha}$ where $k_i(t)$ is the degree of the $i$-th node and $\ell_{ti}$ is the Euclidean distance between the points $t$ and $i$. Here $\alpha$ is a continuously tunable parameter and while for $\alpha=0$ one gets the simple Barab\'asi-Albert network, the case for $\alpha \to -\infty$ corresponds to the spatially continuous version of the well known Scheidegger's river network problem. The modulating parameter $\alpha$ is tuned to study the transition between the two different critical behaviors at a specific value $\alpha_c$ which we numerically estimate to be -2.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figur

Convergent Chaos

Chaos is widely understood as being a consequence of sensitive dependence upon initial conditions. This is the result of an instability in phase space, which separates trajectories exponentially. Here, we demonstrate that this criterion should be refined. Despite their overall intrinsic instability, trajectories may be very strongly convergent in phase space over extremely long periods, as revealed by our investigation of a simple chaotic system (a realistic model for small bodies in a turbulent flow). We establish that this strong convergence is a multi-facetted phenomenon, in which the clustering is intense, widespread and balanced by lacunarity of other regions. Power laws, indicative of scale-free features, characterize the distribution of particles in the system. We use large-deviation and extreme-value statistics to explain the effect. Our results show that the interpretation of the 'butterfly effect' needs to be carefully qualified. We argue that the combination of mixing and clustering processes makes our specific model relevant to understanding the evolution of simple organisms. Lastly, this notion of convergent chaos, which implies the existence of conditions for which uncertainties are unexpectedly small, may also be relevant to the valuation of insurance and futures contracts